China’s shrinking birth rate risks stifling innovation
China’s birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people last year, marking the lowest figure since 1949. Trip.com cofounder James Liang calls the decline more than a demographic issue—it risks stifling long-term innovation.
“We need more people to innovate,” Liang said in an earlier interview. “A shrinking population weakens our ability to drive progress and maintain control over new technologies.”
Innovationism and the case for more children
Liang’s argument ties population size to technological advancement. He describes this idea as innovationism, suggesting larger populations supply more talent for research and development, which generates patents and new discoveries.
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“The total human resources dedicated to research and development determine the volume of patents and technological breakthroughs,” he explained. This view contrasts with economists who believe smaller populations can still grow through automation and efficiency.
The trend extends globally. Last year, two-thirds of the world’s population lived in countries where fertility rates fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have already become super-aged societies, with over 20% of their populations above 65. Even India, once the world’s most populous nation, now reports a fertility rate of 1.9.
Policy fixes—and their limits
Asian governments have introduced incentives to raise birth rates, including cash bonuses and extended parental leave. South Korea, which holds the world’s lowest fertility rate, saw a slight increase from 0.72 children per woman in 2023 to 0.80 in 2025. Liang argues these efforts are insufficient to reverse the decline.
He calculates that lifting a country’s fertility rate by one child—enough to approach stability—would require spending equal to 10% of GDP. “That may seem high,” he admitted, “but in China, it amounts to about two years of economic growth.”
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Liang proposes direct cash transfers to young families, subsidized daycare, and flexible work policies. He also suggests easing academic pressure, noting that competitive education systems in China and South Korea discourage family formation. “Intense systems like college entrance exams can lower fertility,” he said.
Trip.com has adopted some of these measures. The company provides free taxis for pregnant employees, education stipends for new parents, and subsidies for fertility treatments.
AI and the future of human labor
Liang’s concerns about population decline overlap with the rise of artificial intelligence. While AI could create more free time for young people to start families, it might also eliminate entry-level jobs, making financial stability harder to achieve.
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“AI will likely replace most human jobs,” he said. “The challenge is finding meaningful work for people.”
His larger worry is that a shrinking population will increase reliance on AI, reducing human oversight in critical areas. “Without enough people, we risk ceding control to machines,” he warned. The debate continues over whether automation can offset demographic decline or worsen it by destabilizing the workforce.
The country’s population is expected to fall below 1.25 billion by mid-century. The outcome depends on whether policies can change the current trajectory.
